Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Washington Post Foresees "Democratic Tidal Wave"

Thomas Mann of the Washington Post wrote an insightful article about the Democratic Party's chances of regaining the House in November. In Mann's analysis, a Democratic takeover of the House is not merely possible, but probable. As evidence he cites the dismal approval ratings of President Bush and the Republican Congress as well as an increasingly unhappy electorate. Mann concludes, "Energized voters can hold their government accountable and throw the rascals out. Chances are good that, this fall, they will avail themselves of the opportunity."

Here's to hoping a Category 5 storm hits and carries Nancy Johnson out with it.

(Below are some excerpts from the article. To read the entire story click on the link above.)

If history is any guide, we're heading into a major political storm. And that means we could see a national tide in November that will sweep the Democrats back into the majority.

Virtually every public opinion measure points to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane gathering. Bush's job-approval rating is below 40 percent, and congressional job approval is more than 10 percentage points lower. Only a quarter of the electorate thinks the country is moving in the right direction, and voters are unhappy with the economy under Bush. Finally, Democrats hold a double-digit lead as the party the public trusts to do a better job of tackling the nation's problems and the party it would like to see controlling Congress.

But my own reading is that the odds favor a Democratic takeover of the House. The 15 seats that the party needs for a bare majority is well below the range of minority-party gains in past tidal-wave elections. The national winds blowing against the GOP are strong and have not diminished over the past nine months. Credible progress on the ground in Iraq before November is implausible. The public's harsh evaluation of the president's performance on the economy is unlikely to be reversed by Election Day. Prospects for significant legislative achievements in the remaining months of this Congress are remote. Enough seats will be in play (including some that Republicans carried in 2004 with more than 60 percent of the vote) to allow Democrats to gain majority status in the House.


Blogger LeftHottie said...

I think it's great that you regularly update this blog. There are so many blogs that aren't up-to-date on the issues, but you def are. I may not comment very often, but I do read your blog all the time!!

6:29 PM  

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